Although the Horn of Africa saw a glimpse of hope in the past years, recent developments in Ethiopian Eritrean relations bring all the more reason to worry again about regional stability.
Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki warned the Ethiopian head of state to not enhance current tensions between their two countries hinting at a new outbreak of armed violence at their borders.
Afwerki’s worries about a renewed conflict are connected with a fear of Ethiopian military expansion at the borders to Eritrea after Abiy Ahmed repeatedly emphasized the access to the sea as a crucial national interest.
However, this is by far not the first time that those two states at the horn of Africa have had tensions.
Ethiopia and Eritrea: quick conflict overview
Already in 1963 Eritrea fought for its independence resulting in a 30-year long war which eventually concluded in 1993.
Yet afterwards relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea severely cracked down and led to another armed conflict in 1998 over matters of border ambiguity, lasting 2 years until its conclusion with the Algiers Agreement in June 2000.
While this agreement was officially recognized and aimed at promoting peace in the Horn of Africa, the fighting continued with each side accusing the other of using proxy groups to fight for their interests.
Nevertheless, in July 2018 Ethiopia’s then newly elected prime minister Abiy Ahmed soke reconciliation by accepting Eritrean territorial claims, such as the city Badme, and signing a joint declaration of peace and friendship.
However, 2 years after these seemingly progressive developments hopes were shattered again as a new conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region broke out as the Tigranian Population Liberation Force (TPLF) wanted to install an independent entity in the country’s north.
Efforts from both Ethiopian and Eritrean military and a brokered peace deal, the uprising officially came to an end with the Pretoria Agreement in 2022 leaving a devastated population and over a million internally displaced persons in the Tigray region alone according to IOM and UNOCHA.
Current direction
Afwerki’s accusation of fueling new tensions at the bordering region came at first shocking but were promptly overwritten.
Addis Ababa reiterated that sea access was indeed a core interest for the land locked country but that this matter is to be addressed by peaceful means.
Looking at the previous history of conflicts the two countries share with each other and Abiy Ahmed’s initial intention to establish peace between the two nations, it can be considered irrational for Ethiopia to fuel more conflict after such a massive setback in 2022.
Eritrea’s president even mentioned that they would not hesitate to retaliate even though the Ethiopian population is almost 50 times as high as their own’s, which also indicates a similar proportion in their military power.
In conclusion, while Asmara created a more hostile narrative in the Ethiopian-Eritrean relationship Abiy Ahmed denies such allegations and wants to promote peace.
Previously advocating for diplomatic conflict resolution, Ahmed’s words might appear reassuring of a conflict aversive policy approach in the Horn of Africa.
However, looking at the various internal ethnical issues in Ethiopia such as the growing international concern of the Tigray conflict are a legitimate reason for worries about a new wave of regional instability.
